A Western Strategy?
"...The stars are seemingly aligned for the Democrats to make a serious run for the West in 2008. But, are the states worth their weight in electors? Probably not.
There are four states in the West that seem most likely to switch to the Democrats. In order of likelihood they are: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Montana. Those states carry a combined weight of 29 electoral votes. If Democrats were able to win all 4 states in addition to the states that John Kerry won in 2004 it would give them 281 electoral votes - more than the 270 votes needed to win the White House. But, victory in all 4 states is highly unlikely.
The Western strategy is severely dampened because it is almost impossible to imagine a Republican ticket without John McCain on the ballot. Even if Republican primary voters punish him for working with Democrats he will almost certainly be added to the ticket in an effort to appeal to independent voters. The prospect of John McCain on the ballot hinders the Democrat's western strategy as Arizona, McCain's home state, would be taken off the list immediately. Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado would likely become very uncompetitive as well. Even if the Democrats were able to pick off two of the remaining western swing states they would still lose the election in less they won Republican states in other parts of the country...."
There are four states in the West that seem most likely to switch to the Democrats. In order of likelihood they are: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Montana. Those states carry a combined weight of 29 electoral votes. If Democrats were able to win all 4 states in addition to the states that John Kerry won in 2004 it would give them 281 electoral votes - more than the 270 votes needed to win the White House. But, victory in all 4 states is highly unlikely.
The Western strategy is severely dampened because it is almost impossible to imagine a Republican ticket without John McCain on the ballot. Even if Republican primary voters punish him for working with Democrats he will almost certainly be added to the ticket in an effort to appeal to independent voters. The prospect of John McCain on the ballot hinders the Democrat's western strategy as Arizona, McCain's home state, would be taken off the list immediately. Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado would likely become very uncompetitive as well. Even if the Democrats were able to pick off two of the remaining western swing states they would still lose the election in less they won Republican states in other parts of the country...."
posted by Kyle at 11:55 AM
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